Sports Betting Breakdown 9.20.23

We're back after a 3-2 day with a slate with a lot more props we like today.  The goal is to just keep stacking positive days and we're back at it again today.  The first game starts at 12:20 EST so we're ready to do nothing but watch these bets hit.

Aaron Nola o5.5HA, 1u @ -120 DraftKings: Nola has been disappointing for the Phillies this year and has been bad as of late.  In his past 3 starts against the Cardinals, Marlins, and Brewers, Nola couldn't get through five innings and allowed 7, 7, and 8 hits in each of those starts respectively.  Nola's assignment today is even tougher as he takes on a historically good lineup in the Atlanta Braves and we're looking for them to attack Nola early and cash this play quickly.

Josiah Gray o15.5O, 1u @ +110 DraftKings: Josiah Gray, one of the centerpieces of the Trea Turner and Max Scherzer trade, has had some growing pains in the MLB where he looks like a top-of-the-line starter in some starts and struggles in others.  We're counting on him to dominate the Chicago White Sox today, given they're a righty-heavy lineup that somehow has more issues in the clubhouse than their lack of talent on the field.  It is also in the National's best interest to let Gray try to work his way out of jams against a bad team.  The key for Gray to cover today is to avoid walks and attack the White Sox's below-average hitters.

Nationals ML, 1u @ -125 BetMGM:  The Nationals have quietly been a fun team this year and they have some intriguing pieces that can turn out to be valuable contributors in the future.  We talked about Josiah Gray above and we favor him in the pitching matchup today, as the Nationals are facing ex-top prospect Michael Kopech who has elite stuff but has suffered from control issues this season and was just relegated to the bullpen his past three appearances.  Kopech wasn't better from the bullpen and the Nationals are a team that can capitalize on the free passes that Kopech gives out. 

George Kirby o17.5O, 1u @ -120 BetMGM: Kirby has hit this line in his last 2 starts and 3 of his last 5.  Kirby has elite control and minimizes walks which helps keep his pitch count down.  Additionally, he's facing the Oakland AAs today and should dominate this lineup en route to covering this line and a Mariners W.

Kodai Senga u4.5HA, 1u @ +120 DraftKings: Senga has been pitching better and better as the season has progressed and dominated his last 5 starts.  Senga has also covered this line in 4 of his last 5 and we're looking for him to utilize his Ghost Fork to deal with the pesky Marlins hitters.  It also helps that Marlins star contact hitter, Luis Arraez, hurt his ankle steeping on a baseball yesterday and might not play today.

Mitch Keller o17.5O, 1u @ -120 DraftKings: Keller has been a workhorse for the Pirates this year and is averaging over 6 IP per start.  Keller has also covered this line in 4 of his last 5 starts, with the only start he didn't cover being a start against the Braves.  One of these starts includes an 8-inning masterclass against the Cubs, the team he's facing today. 

Dodgers + Mariners ML, 1u @ +103 DraftKings: We mentioned the Mariners starting one of the most reliable starters in the Majors, George Kirby, against the Athletics who would be happy if they won one game the rest of the season.  Meanwhile, the Dodgers are starting promising rookie Bobby Miller against the Tigers, who are starting struggling pitcher Reese Olson.  Both the Dodgers and Mariners should easily beat these teams given the difference in talent but also their starting pitching advantage.

Padres + Rays ML, 1u @ -102 DraftKings: The Padres are looking to finish the sweep of the last-place Rockies, as they start Seth Lugo vs. the Rockies Chase Anderson.  Anderson has pitched to a 6.43 ERA for the Rockies over 15 starts and despite their disappointing offensive season, the Padres should be able to put up runs early against him.  Meanwhile, the Rays are starting Aaron Civale, who has been incredibly tough to hit at the Trop as they face another Angel lefty in Reid Detmers.  The Rays are a team that kills lefty pitchers and they should chase Detmers early today.

ICYM

Don't forget to check out our recent blog posts!

- "The Do Not Bet List" where we break down what teams we're going to strictly fade and what teams we will completely avoid with our reasoning behind each decision.  For now, this is only related to NFL + MLB teams but at some point, we'll expand to CFB and CBB!

- "Pursuit of Perfection: Two Traits that Lead to Mastery" where we break down what two characteristics separate the best athletes in the world from the great.  Ever wonder why Kobe, Jordan, GSP, and others were so good? They relied on two soft skills to separate themselves from the rest.

- "Week 3 Power Rankings" posted to our Football-specific blog "The Touchdown Times"! We broke down all the NFL teams into tiers and justified each of our rankings as well as highlighted the week's biggest risers/fallers

Sports Betting Breakdown 9.19.23

We had a solid day in the MLB world yesterday!  The Brewers got shut out but we ended up 2-1 for +1.33u.  No NFL today (Tuesday problems) and unfortunately we have to wait till 6:40 for the first pitch today.  Let's get into the logic behind our picks that can be found every day on our Twitter!

Padres + Mariners ML, 1u @ +104 Fanduel:  This play is directly based on two tier-one teams on our "Do Not Bet List' (linked below!), as the Padres take on the Rockies in San Diego and the Mariners take on the Oakland AAA's in Oakland.  Adding to the value of this play is NL Cy Young favorite Blake Snell is pitching for the Padres and has been dominant in his last 20 starts, pitching to an ERA of 1.24 and K/9 north of 12 while the Mariners are starting their ace, Luis Castillo, today.  Both these teams won yesterday as well with worse starting pitchers so we're looking for this to be a sweat-free bankroll builder.

Patrick Sandoval o4.5HA, 1u @ -155 DraftKings: Sandoval has been disappointing for the Angels this year and in his recent starts has been hurt by bad defense.  However, despite giving up multiple runs the Angels have given him the opportunity to work out of jams and shown they will not pull him early.  He's also allowed 5+ hits in 4 of his last 5 starts and the Rays will look to attack him early.

Clarke Schmidt o15.5O, 1u @ -125 DraftKings: Schmidt, outside from a rough start against the Braves and a bad April has been a pleasant surprise for a disappointing Yankee team.  Schmidt matches up well against the Blue Jays and their righty-dominant lineup, as his sinker and sweeper are tough for righties to make solid contact with.  Additionally, he's covered this line in 4 of his last 5 starts making us love the value of this play.

Cristopher Sanchez o3.5Ks, 1u @ -105 BetMGM:  This is a play our strikeout model loves as it is predicting Sanchez to have close to 5Ks today vs. the struggling Braves.  Sanchez has covered this line in his last 7 starts and we have little reason to believe that changes today.

Hunter Brown o4.5Ks, 1u @ -145 DraftKings: As mentioned in our tweet about this play, the line was at 6.5 on Fanduel so expect this line to move quickly and grab it while you can.  Brown has covered this line in his last 6 starts and we're looking for him to continue this trend today. 

ICYM:

Don't forget to check out our recent blog posts!

- "The Do Not Bet List" where we break down what teams we're going to strictly fade and what teams we will completely avoid with our reasoning behind each decision.  For now, this is only related to NFL + MLB teams but at some point, we'll expand to CFB and CBB!

- "Pursuit of Perfection: Two Traits that Lead to Mastery" where we break down what two characteristics separate the best athletes in the world from the great.  Ever wonder why Kobe, Jordan, GSP, and others were so good? They relied on two soft skills to separate themselves from the rest.

Sports Betting Breakdown 9.18.23

We're back!  We had a great weekend in CFB and not as great in the NFL!  Let's get back to it today with three MLB plays and one NFL play for each game.

MLB Bets

Edward Cabrera u5.5Ks, 1u @ +102 Fanduel:  I know we just put the Mets on tier 2 of the do not bet list but this is about Cabrera and not them! Cabrera has legitimate control issues and the Marlins are very conscious of the amount of innings their young starters are throwing.  Edward Cabrera has already surpassed last year's innings total by 14 and counting hasn't gone over 5 innings in any of his last 5 starts.  Lastly, he has only hit the over in 1 of his last 4 starts so given the above we are tentatively making an exception to bet this today.

Jordan Montgomery o15.5O, 1u @ +131 Draftkings: Montgomery has hit this over in 4 of his last 5 starts and has navigated some tough lineups in the process.  Monty has also had plenty of experience pitching against the Red Sox given he came up in the Yankees system and he should know how to induce soft contact from the Red Sox hitters.  The Red Sox have also been reeling recently and just were swept by the Blue Jays over the weekend and now are flying from Canada to Texas to take on the Rangers, who are desperately trying to stay in the playoff picture.

Brewers + Padres ML, 1u @ +120 Draftkings:  The Brewers have Freddy Peralta pitching for them who has pitched well as of late.  They are taking on the disappointing Cardinals who are starting lifer Adam Wainwright who has been the worst starter in baseball this year.  The Brewers have also been playing good baseball this year and are deep in the playoff hunt and need to win games like this.  The Padres are starting Michael Wacha who has been solid for them despite coming off a bad start in his last outing.  They're taking on the Rockies at home and despite being a disappointment this year, they have played well as of late and should win this one easily.

NFL Bets

Saints -3, 1u @ -115 Draftkings:  The Saints visit Carolina to take on the Panthers on one of two MNF games this week.  Bluntly, the Saints are a much more talented team and should cover this easily.  Their defense is legit and should give first-overall pick Bryce Young plenty of issues like the Falcons were able to do last week.  The Panthers are also without their number 1 CB in Jaycee Horn so look for Olave and Derek Carr to get in a rhythm early.

Browns ML, 1u @ +115 Draftkings:  The only reason we're not taking the spread is because weird things seem to happen when the Browns travel to Pittsburgh.  However, this year the Browns are the more talented team at every position group (with the exception of safety) and should win this game handily.  

The "Do Not Bet List"

Sports betting can be an exhilarating pastime, but not all teams are created equal when it comes to wagering. This guide will break down the teams that have earned an infamous spot on our "Do Not Bet List." These are the teams that are either too unpredictable or consistently underperform, making them a risky proposition for sports bettors. We've divided them into two tiers to help you navigate the treacherous waters of sports gambling and hopefully save you some stress and anxiety.

Tier 1: Bet Against and Only Bet Against

This tier is comprised of mostly bad teams and relying on them to win games isn't worth the risk. They will sometimes be able to upset better teams but overall it's best to stick to prop bets and betting on their opponents doing well.  Don't do the mental gymnastics required to justify these teams winning a game, it is just not worth it.

MLB Teams

Oakland Athletics: This is bluntly the worst team in all of sports.  The Ownership has tried (and succeeded) to make this team as miserable as possible to get approval to move the team to Vegas.  They bolster a roster that would lose to some AAA and AA teams consistently.

Chicago White Sox: Despite having some talented players, the White Sox have not been able to play consistent, good baseball over recent years.  They've consistently underachieved and this year they have finally made some changes in the front office as well as started to rebuild. The remaining pitchers are also maddeningly inconsistent and even their props typically aren't worth betting on.

Colorado Rockies: Playing in the thin air of Denver can lead to unpredictable outcomes.  However, given that the Rockies do not employ good hitters this only hurts their chances of winning.  Their below-average pitching staff would struggle to pitch away from Coors Field, thus making it even tougher to justify relying on them to win a game.

Los Angeles Angels: The Angels have struggled to put together a good team despite having two of the best players of all time.  Now that Ohtani is leaving this team's fortunes have gotten much worse and they just clinched their 8th consecutive year.  The presence of an all-time great in Mike Trout might boost their opponent's odds but he's proven he alone cannot carry this team to a victory every night

Cleveland Guardians: This team's fortunes have been mixed, and they can be challenging to predict. They have dominant starting pitching some nights and no offense on those nights. Typically they win with good pitching and just enough offense to get by making them not very dependable.

NFL Teams:

Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals FO and upper management do not want them to win games and have stripped the roster down to reflect this.  There's no reason to bet on them to win when this team can only win by losing to give themselves a better chance at drafting Caleb Williams

Washington Commanders: The Commanders are still an enigma and their defense and offense never seem to be quite in sync.  One day the offense will struggle to move the ball and the next week the defense will allow a 50 yard hail mary to almost blow the game.  They don't quite make the next tier as there is still value in betting against them for the time being

Chicago Bears: The Bears are a bad team.  They traded up for Justin Fields two years ago and then traded away the number 1 pick last year showing their belief in him.  They seem to have forgotten the numerous games he's single-handedly lost them with a late interception or fumble and that trend has continued this year. The offense has been awful through two games and there is little hope to believe that changes anytime soon.

Denver Broncos: Inconsistency has plagued the Broncos in recent times.  Last year with Nathaniel Hackett as the coach this team was the messiest in the league. This year it doesn't seem much different as they've dropped the first two games of the season against teams that are not very good.  The defense seems to have taken a step back this year as well which hurts them overall.

Tier 2: Do Not Bet on or Against

This tier is for the special teams that seem to play well when you bet on them to lose and seem to forget how to play their sport when you need them to win.  A tier full of underperformance and disappointments, avoid betting on or against these teams with the exception of the occasional prop (typically a prop that relies on a single player and not help from anyone else such as a pitcher prop or QB rushing prop).

MLB Teams

New York Mets: Despite high expectations, the Mets have disappointed fans and bettors alike. Look for individual player props in their games (specifically surrounding Kodai Senga) if anything.  Some days the offense looks like the best in baseball and others they look like the A's.  The Mets starting rotation entering the year is nothing compared to the current unit, and the bullpen has blown plenty of games as well.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies' pitching can be hit or miss, but they have clutch players who can change the game.  Nola and Wheeler haven't been their typical selves most of the year and big offseason Trea Turner was horrible for most of the year before becoming one of the best hitters since his supportive standing ovation from Philly fans.  The Bullpen also still has massive question marks and as mentioned earlier, if Bryce Harper comes up in a clutch spot he seems to always find a way to come through.

NFL Teams:

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings can be inconsistent, and turnovers are a significant issue. Some games Kirk Cousins plays like an all-pro QB and other days he looks like Zach Wilson, making inexcusable throws that lead to turnovers or holding the ball too long and fumbling.  Meanwhile, the defense, headlined by Harrison Smith and Danielle Hunter, seems to disappear during games allowing for easy points for the opponent.  Overall the team is too unpredictable and unreliable to bet on or against.

The Riskiest Bet: Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers sit at the top of our "Do Not Bet List." Here's why:

• Coach Staley's unconventional approach often leads to risky decisions, including going for fourth downs regardless of the situation, which can backfire. 
• Star players on the Chargers' defense can inexplicably disappear during games, leading to costly mistakes. 
• They have a history of blowing substantial leads, making them a rollercoaster for bettors.

Coach Staley's team consistently plays like they're in the video game Madden, going for ridiculous and questionable fourth downs no matter where they are on the field which usually leads to the Chargers throwing away points (from a field goal), or giving their opponent points (with a short field).  Additionally, this sets them up for failure later in the game when they need to convert a two-point conversion or 4th down and have already burned their best play for the situation. There have been countless roughing the passer and pass interference calls against Staley's star defensive players that extend their opponent's drives.  Lastly, no lead is ever safe with the Chargers, as the offensive firepower that Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and more possess can put up points extremely quickly while the defense has a tendency to allow more points than they should.  It's typical for the Chargers to blow a lead and then tie the game, just to go three and out in overtime and lose the game (like they did yesterday, losing to a far inferior Titans team).

Conclusion:

In the world of sports betting, knowledge is power. By understanding which teams to approach with caution and which to avoid altogether, you can make more informed decisions and hopefully increase your chances of success. While these teams may occasionally surprise you, remember that betting should always be done responsibly, and it's essential to assess the risks before placing your wagers.

By keeping our "Do Not Bet List" in mind, you can navigate the unpredictable world of sports betting with greater confidence. Happy betting, and may the odds be ever in your favor!

Sports Betting Breakdown 9.15.23

Happy Friday!  Let's build off our 3-1 (+2.57u) day yesterday and start the weekend off strong!  Only MLB bets today and we'll have some CFB mixed in tomorrow!  Props to anyone who bet TJ Hockenson ATTD, Devonta Smith ATTD, and Hurts ATTD yesterday as those were pretty sweat-free.  Let's go over our plays today!

Johnny Cueto o5.5HA, .5u @ +105 Draftkings:  Cueto and the Marlins take on the best team in baseball tonight in the Atlanta Braves.  Cueto has averaged giving up about 5 hits a start this year and given how historically great this Braves offense is, we like the value of getting this line at + odds.  

Johnny Cueto o2.5ER, 1u @ -140 Draftkings: As mentioned above, Cueto is taking on a historic offense in the Braves tonight.  Cueto has also hit this line in 7 of his 9 games this season and in each of his last 6 starts.  Let's look for the Braves to jump to an early lead and get our first two props out of the way sweat-free.

Yankees ML, 2u @ -114 Drafkings (boosted):  The Yankees take on the Pirates in Pittsburgh tonight, as ace Gerrit Cole visits the team that drafted him and where he started his career. Cole has been spectacular all season and will likely be a unanimous Cy Young winner (his first in his career).  Even with Dominguez out the Yankees took 3 of 4 from their rival Red Sox.  Meanwhile, the Pirates are starting Johan Oviedo who has been solid for them this season but lacks the velocity to give the Yankees right-handed hitters issues. Oviedo has also struggled recently, being unable to go through 4 innings in each of his last two starts.

Logan Webb o17.5O, 1u @ -110 Draftkings: Logan Webb, the ace and workhorse for the Giants visits the Rockies in Coors field.  Luckily, Webb is a sinkerballer and the high altitude shouldn't really affect him too much, as he pitches to soft contact and ground balls.  Webb also averages over 6IP a start this season and has covered this line in 4 of his last 5 starts.  The Rockies' offense is also one of the worst in the leagues helping our confidence in this play

Logan Webb u6.5HA, 1u @ +100 Draftkings:  We tried to play this line yesterday but unfortunately the weather had other plans.  Webb has pitched well against the Rockies in his last start, and we have no reason to believe that will be different today.

Cubs ML, 1u @ -132 Fanduel:  The Cubs travel to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks.  Despite still being in the postseason race, the Diamondbacks have been very inconsistent in the second half of the season.  Meanwhile, the Cubs are starting their ace and probable NL Cy Young runner-up, Justin Steele, who recently dominated this Diamondbacks lineup

Justin Steele o5.5Ks, 1u @ -122 Fanduel:  As mentioned above, Steele recently dominated the Diamondbacks lineup and his slider is borderline unfair when he throws it against lefties. Steele has also covered this line in each of his last 5 starts and there's no reason to believe that streak ends tonight.

Overall we're betting on good teams or against bad teams today, something we'll be going into more detail in an article dropping later today!

Sports Betting Breakdown 9.14.24

We're back-dropping our sports betting breakdowns to explain the logic behind our picks.  After the Eagles and Vikings performances on Sunday, it looks like we'll skip an NFL pick today, especially with plenty of key Eagles questionable.  There is a no-sweat bet on DraftKings that we'd recommend using on an ATTD scorer such as AJ Brown, Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, etc. Let's get into the MLB plays of the day

Eury Perez o3.5HA, 1u @ -145 DraftKings:  Eury Perez has had a very solid rookie season but it is now September and he's pitched more than he ever has in his life.  Additionally, the Brewers offense operates on stringing hits together to score runs and could easily cash this prop in one inning.   3.5 is also an extremely low line for a starting pitcher so we just had to jump on this line at this value.

Kodai Senga u4.5HA, 1u @ -105 DraftKings: Kodai Senga has been exceptionable for the Mets this year in his "Rookie" season.  In his last 5 starts, he's going at least 6 innings and has allowed 4 or fewer hits in 4 of them.  The Diamondbacks have struggled in the second half and we're looking for Kodai Senga and his "Ghost Forkball" to give the Diamondback hitter fits.  

Kyle Bradish o17.5O, 1.5u @ -105 DraftKings: Bradish has been the ace for the Orioles this year and has really turned it on as of late, going 6 innings or more in each of his last 5 starts.  Additionally, Bradish has only gone less than 6.0 IP once since June 16th, a span of 13 games started.

Jose Urena u3.5Ks, .5u @ +110 DraftKings: This is just a case of fading a bad pitcher.  Urena was awful for the Rockies before being picked up by the White Sox and has an ERA of 8.46 and FIP of 9.70 on the season.  Look for the Twins to chase Urena early on route to an easy win today.  Additionally, in his six starts this season he's only hit the over on this once, against the disappointing Cardinals on April 12th.

Logan Webb u6.5HA, 1u @ +105 DraftKings: The Ace of the Giants takes on the last-place Rockies.  Similar to the last pick we're betting on a good pitcher vs. a bad team. Webb's last start was against the Rockies last week, and he only allowed 3 hits over 6 dominant innings.  Webb has also hit the under on this line in 2 of his last 3 starts, and 3 of his last 5. One thing that can hurt Webb is that he goes deep in games but if his sinker is on the Rockies should hit a lot of weak ground balls today.