Super Bowl Betting Breakdown

Mood when the Super Bowl Parlay Hits

I released these plays yesterday as part of my Super Bowl Preview and Picks, but I've added two more straight bets and one touchdown parlay since then so decided to re-release with the new plays!

Super Bowl Prop Bets

Chiefs ML @ +105, 1u

• The Chiefs have the best QB in the world and have been pretty much perfect throughout the postseason.  This is their 4th Super Bowl in the past 5 years and we know they'll be prepared
• Niners have also come out slow in both of their playoff games, and the Chiefs won't give the game away like the Lions
• There should be a point in time when the Niners ML will have plus odds and I will be looking to hedge and secure some guaranteed profit

Isiah Pacheco ATTD @ -120, 1.2u

• Death, Taxes, Isiah Pacheco running angry for touchdowns
• Already has 3 touchdowns in 3 games this postseason
• Niners defense struggles a bit against the run
• Pacheco is also a decent-sized part of the pass production for the Chiefs in the red zone

Isiah Pacheco o66.5 Rush Yards @ -120, 1.2u

• As mentioned earlier, the Niners defense is vulnerable in the run game
• David Montgomery and Aaron Jones have torched this defense this postseason
• Pacheco covered this line in every postseason game thus far
• Could see Chiefs lean on Pacheco to dominate Time of Possession and keep the Niners potent offense off the field
• Also will keep the Niners pass rush honest

Travis Kelce o70.5 Rec Yards @ -115, 1.15u

• Kelce's come alive this postseason and has covered this line in all three games
• Still Mahomes go-to target when he's under pressure, something that should happen a lot against this Niners' pass rush
• Niners also just got torched by Sam Laporta for 97 yards

CMC o90.5 Rush Yards @ -115, 1.15u

• Like the Niners, the Chiefs' defense can struggle against the run
• CMC has rushed for 90+ yards in both playoff games
• Focal point of the Niners' offense is the ground game and establishing the run
• Led the league in Rushing EPA

Fred Warner o8.5 Tackles + Assists @ +115, 1u

• The Chiefs will look to attack the middle of the field with Pacheco runs and quick passes over the middle 
• Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton had 16 and 11 tackles respectively playing in a role that will be similar to what Fred Warner will play today

Brock Purdy o3.5 Rushing Attempts @ +128, 1u

• Purdy's not afraid to use his legs to extend plays or get some yards
• His running game was a big reason the Niners were able to secure the comeback against the Lions in the NFC Championship
• Covered this line in both playoff games

Mahomes o4.5 Rushing Attempts @ -112, 1.12u

• Mahomes is a magician and can use his legs to extend plays or run for short yardage
• 6% Sack Rate when pressured
• Niners aggressive front will hunt for sacks rather than try to contain Mahomes
• Has covered this in two of three playoff games
• 6 rushes against both the Bills and Ravens
• Only 2 rushes against the Dolphins but that game was over early

Super Bowl Parlay @ +473 

Leg 1: CMC ATTD

• Every Parlay should probably have this in it to give it a slight odds boost.
• Only has three games as a Niner without a touchdown, one of which he left early due to injury
• Scored multiple touchdowns in both postseason games

Leg 2: Kelce ATTD

• Kelce is back to being the dominant offensive force we've seen the past couple of years
• Scored a touchdown in each of the last two postseason games
• Mahomes go-to guy when he feels the pressure 

Leg 3: OVER 47.5

• These offenses are too good for the total to be this low
• Niners have the best offense in football, and the Chiefs have the best QB in football

Leg 4: Brock Purdy o246.5 Passing Yards

• The Niners have come out slow in both of their postseason games thus far
• Will have to throw the ball a lot to keep up with the Chiefs
• Purdy's covered this line in both postseason games already