Monday, September 18, 2023

The "Do Not Bet List"

Sports betting can be an exhilarating pastime, but not all teams are created equal when it comes to wagering. This guide will break down the teams that have earned an infamous spot on our "Do Not Bet List." These are the teams that are either too unpredictable or consistently underperform, making them a risky proposition for sports bettors. We've divided them into two tiers to help you navigate the treacherous waters of sports gambling and hopefully save you some stress and anxiety.

Tier 1: Bet Against and Only Bet Against

This tier is comprised of mostly bad teams and relying on them to win games isn't worth the risk. They will sometimes be able to upset better teams but overall it's best to stick to prop bets and betting on their opponents doing well.  Don't do the mental gymnastics required to justify these teams winning a game, it is just not worth it.

MLB Teams

Oakland Athletics: This is bluntly the worst team in all of sports.  The Ownership has tried (and succeeded) to make this team as miserable as possible to get approval to move the team to Vegas.  They bolster a roster that would lose to some AAA and AA teams consistently.

Chicago White Sox: Despite having some talented players, the White Sox have not been able to play consistent, good baseball over recent years.  They've consistently underachieved and this year they have finally made some changes in the front office as well as started to rebuild. The remaining pitchers are also maddeningly inconsistent and even their props typically aren't worth betting on.

Colorado Rockies: Playing in the thin air of Denver can lead to unpredictable outcomes.  However, given that the Rockies do not employ good hitters this only hurts their chances of winning.  Their below-average pitching staff would struggle to pitch away from Coors Field, thus making it even tougher to justify relying on them to win a game.


Los Angeles Angels: The Angels have struggled to put together a good team despite having two of the best players of all time.  Now that Ohtani is leaving this team's fortunes have gotten much worse and they just clinched their 8th consecutive year.  The presence of an all-time great in Mike Trout might boost their opponent's odds but he's proven he alone cannot carry this team to a victory every night

Cleveland Guardians: This team's fortunes have been mixed, and they can be challenging to predict. They have dominant starting pitching some nights and no offense on those nights. Typically they win with good pitching and just enough offense to get by making them not very dependable.

NFL Teams:

Arizona Cardinals: The Cardinals FO and upper management do not want them to win games and have stripped the roster down to reflect this.  There's no reason to bet on them to win when this team can only win by losing to give themselves a better chance at drafting Caleb Williams

Washington Commanders: The Commanders are still an enigma and their defense and offense never seem to be quite in sync.  One day the offense will struggle to move the ball and the next week the defense will allow a 50 yard hail mary to almost blow the game.  They don't quite make the next tier as there is still value in betting against them for the time being


Chicago Bears: The Bears are a bad team.  They traded up for Justin Fields two years ago and then traded away the number 1 pick last year showing their belief in him.  They seem to have forgotten the numerous games he's single-handedly lost them with a late interception or fumble and that trend has continued this year. The offense has been awful through two games and there is little hope to believe that changes anytime soon.

Denver Broncos: Inconsistency has plagued the Broncos in recent times.  Last year with Nathaniel Hackett as the coach this team was the messiest in the league. This year it doesn't seem much different as they've dropped the first two games of the season against teams that are not very good.  The defense seems to have taken a step back this year as well which hurts them overall.

Tier 2: Do Not Bet on or Against

This tier is for the special teams that seem to play well when you bet on them to lose and seem to forget how to play their sport when you need them to win.  A tier full of underperformance and disappointments, avoid betting on or against these teams with the exception of the occasional prop (typically a prop that relies on a single player and not help from anyone else such as a pitcher prop or QB rushing prop).

MLB Teams

New York Mets: Despite high expectations, the Mets have disappointed fans and bettors alike. Look for individual player props in their games (specifically surrounding Kodai Senga) if anything.  Some days the offense looks like the best in baseball and others they look like the A's.  The Mets starting rotation entering the year is nothing compared to the current unit, and the bullpen has blown plenty of games as well.

Philadelphia Phillies: The Phillies' pitching can be hit or miss, but they have clutch players who can change the game.  Nola and Wheeler haven't been their typical selves most of the year and big offseason Trea Turner was horrible for most of the year before becoming one of the best hitters since his supportive standing ovation from Philly fans.  The Bullpen also still has massive question marks and as mentioned earlier, if Bryce Harper comes up in a clutch spot he seems to always find a way to come through.

NFL Teams:

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings can be inconsistent, and turnovers are a significant issue. Some games Kirk Cousins plays like an all-pro QB and other days he looks like Zach Wilson, making inexcusable throws that lead to turnovers or holding the ball too long and fumbling.  Meanwhile, the defense, headlined by Harrison Smith and Danielle Hunter, seems to disappear during games allowing for easy points for the opponent.  Overall the team is too unpredictable and unreliable to bet on or against.

The Riskiest Bet: Los Angeles Chargers

The Los Angeles Chargers sit at the top of our "Do Not Bet List." Here's why:
  • Coach Staley's unconventional approach often leads to risky decisions, including going for fourth downs regardless of the situation, which can backfire. 
  • Star players on the Chargers' defense can inexplicably disappear during games, leading to costly mistakes. 
  • They have a history of blowing substantial leads, making them a rollercoaster for bettors.

Coach Staley's team consistently plays like they're in the video game Madden, going for ridiculous and questionable fourth downs no matter where they are on the field which usually leads to the Chargers throwing away points (from a field goal), or giving their opponent points (with a short field).  Additionally, this sets them up for failure later in the game when they need to convert a two-point conversion or 4th down and have already burned their best play for the situation. There have been countless roughing the passer and pass interference calls against Staley's star defensive players that extend their opponent's drives.  Lastly, no lead is ever safe with the Chargers, as the offensive firepower that Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and more possess can put up points extremely quickly while the defense has a tendency to allow more points than they should.  It's typical for the Chargers to blow a lead and then tie the game, just to go three and out in overtime and lose the game (like they did yesterday, losing to a far inferior Titans team).

Conclusion:

In the world of sports betting, knowledge is power. By understanding which teams to approach with caution and which to avoid altogether, you can make more informed decisions and hopefully increase your chances of success. While these teams may occasionally surprise you, remember that betting should always be done responsibly, and it's essential to assess the risks before placing your wagers.

By keeping our "Do Not Bet List" in mind, you can navigate the unpredictable world of sports betting with greater confidence. Happy betting, and may the odds be ever in your favor!

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