Saturday, August 19, 2023

Spots Betting Breakdown 8.19.23

Framber Valdez o18.5O, 1u @ +135 Draftkings:  Valdez takes the mound for the Astros today and all we need him to do is get one out to start the 7th inning. Valdez is averaging 6.5 innings a start this year and with the Astros turning to a 6-man rotation Dusty Baker isn't afraid to let his pitchers throw 100+ pitches every time out there.  He also came into the season as the Astros ace and has thrown two complete games this season already so Dusty should have extreme confidence in him to give him length and work his way out of dangerous situations.

Miles Mikolas o3.5ks, 1u @ -155 Draftkings:  Our strikeout model has identified some value with this pick, expecting Mikolas to have 4.5ks.  This line is already up to 4.5ks on some other sports betting markets (Fanduel) so move quickly to get this value.  

Logan Webb o4.5ks, 1u @ -135 Draftkings:  Logan Webb is taking on the World Series favorites and best lineup in baseball today, but our model is predicting him to have about 5.5Ks today.  Logan Webb also typically goes deep in games so hopefully he can get deep into the game and cash this prop early.

Logan Webb o17.5O, 1u @ -145 Draftkings:  As mentioned above, Logan Webb typically goes deep in games.  Gabe Kepler likes to let his workhorse take him through the 6th inning and into the 7th, as Webb averages over 6.5 innings a start this year.

Orioles + Cubs ML, 1u @ +142 Draftkings:  We'll probably be picking the Orioles ML every day this weekend, as they're a legit World Series contender and the A's are a glorified minor league team.  Meanwhile, the Cubs in the thick of the playoff race need to win the next two games for the Royals and have their best pitcher Justin Steele on the mound for them today.  

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