Friday, August 18, 2023

Sports Betting Breakdown 8.16.23

 

Taillon u17.5 Outs, 1u @ +105 DK:  Taillon takes on the Royals who have quietly been playing good ball since the all-star break. The Royals just hit around Luis Castillo and George Kirby the past two days who have been much better pitchers than Taillon this season.  Taillon's struggled to go deep in games averaging under 5 innings a start on the year making this a great value at + Odds

Gavin Williams u7.5Ks, 1u @ -145 DK:We're going off our model for this pick.  Our model predicts that Gavin Williams should have 5.5Ks today so we'll glady take the extra two that DK is giving us.  This line will probably continue to drop quickly as when we researched this bet Fanduel already had his line down to 6.5ks

Andrew Heaney o1.5BBs, 1u @ -180 DK:  Heaney's been having control issues recently and we're predicting Heaney to have 2BBs today based off the walks model we're developing.  Heaney's also had 2, 2, 0, 3, and 3 walks in his last 5 starts.

NRFI Pirates/Twins, 1u @ +100 Fanduel:  Andre Jackson didn't allow a run in his last start vs. the Reds, who have a much stronger top-of-the-lineup than the Twins.  Meanwhile, the Twins have their ace Pablo Lopez on the bump against a Pirates lineup that has come back down to earth.  As long as Lopez avoids giving up a homer he should have no issues getting through the top of the lineup unscathed.

JP France o4.5ks, 1u @ -145 DK: Our model is predicting JP France to have 5.5Ks so we're taking the value here.  The Mariners offense has also had some strikeout issues in this past series vs. the Royals this week.  This line was already up to 5.5 on Fanduel so move quickly on this one!

JP France o1.5BBs, 1u @ -120 DK:  This is another pick from the BBs model we're developing.  JP France is predicted to walk just over 2 batters this game and he's hit this over in 3 of his last 5 games

Tyler Anderson o1.5BBs, 1u @ -125 DK: Anderson has hit the over on this in 3 of his last 5 appearances.  Our BBs model is predicting him to land just over 2BBs today as well.

Braves/Orioles ML, 1u @ +119 DK:  Obviously we had to throw a little bank roller builder Parlay. We love the Braves' matchup with ace Spencer Strider on the mound vs. Alex Cobb and the Giants. The Braves offense is quietly one of the best ever and they should be able to take score multiple runs against Alex Cobb, who has allowed at least one homer in 4 of his last 5 starts.  The Orioles have their workhorse Kyle Gibson on the mound vs. the A's Luis Medina, who is a AAA pitcher getting run at the Major League Level.  This isn't the same old O's anymore and they should take care of the A's handedly this weekend.

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