Sunday, August 20, 2023

Sports Betting Breakdown 8.20.23

 


Carlos Carrasco o1.5BBs, 1u @ -115 DK:  Carrasco has been underwhelming throughout his Met career.  Our model is predicting him to have 2+ walks today and he's hit this line in his last 2 starts and 3 of his last 5.  St. Louis also has a top 10 walk rate in the league and will take the walks when given the opportunity.

Max Scherzer o16.5O, 1u @ +100 DK: In his three starts with the Rangers Scherzer has gone 6, 7, and 7 innings.  In his first start, he struggled early in the game before settling down and battling his way to a quality start.  The Rangers need a win today and Scherzer is the best pitcher on this team, look for them to let him go as far as he can today.

Adrien Houser o3.5ks, 1u @ -122 Fanduel:  Our model predicts Houser to have about 4.5ks today vs. the Rangers.  We also noted that both Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta had 4+ K's in their starts against the Rangers in this series.

NRFI Rangers/Brewers, 1u @ -102 Fanduel: We're back on the NRFI grind!  We like the NRFI in the Rangers/Brewers game today, as Houser has given up 0 runs in the first inning in 4 of the last 5 starts, including games against the Dodgers and Braves.  Scherzer hasn't allowed a first-inning run in his last two starts and has allowed just 1 ER over his last 19 innings.

JP Sears u17.5O, 1u @ +100 DK:  On the year JP Sears is averaging 5.1 innings per start.  Sears also hasn't gone 6+ innings in any of his last 5 starts.  Additionally, the Orioles have a very strong offense and could chase Sears early in this game.

Zach Wheeler u6.5ks, 1u @ -130 Fanduel:  Our model predicts Zack Wheeler to have around 5.6Ks so we like the value of this play.  Additionally, Wheeler has had under 6.5ks in his last three starts and the Nationals are one of the best teams at putting the ball in play.

Orioles + Phillies ML, 1u @ +118 DK: We've rocked with the Orioles ML the past two days and are continuing this today, as they have their workhorse Kyle Bradish on the mound vs. the struggling A's and JP sears. The Phillies are taking on the Nationals on SNB with ace Zach Wheeler on the mound vs. Trevor Williams of the Nationals, who has struggled as of late.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Super Bowl Betting Breakdown

Mood when the Super Bowl Parlay Hits I released these plays yesterday as part of my Super Bowl Preview and Picks , but I've added two mo...