Sports Betting Breakdown 9.19.23

We had a solid day in the MLB world yesterday!  The Brewers got shut out but we ended up 2-1 for +1.33u.  No NFL today (Tuesday problems) and unfortunately we have to wait till 6:40 for the first pitch today.  Let's get into the logic behind our picks that can be found every day on our Twitter!

Padres + Mariners ML, 1u @ +104 Fanduel:  This play is directly based on two tier-one teams on our "Do Not Bet List' (linked below!), as the Padres take on the Rockies in San Diego and the Mariners take on the Oakland AAA's in Oakland.  Adding to the value of this play is NL Cy Young favorite Blake Snell is pitching for the Padres and has been dominant in his last 20 starts, pitching to an ERA of 1.24 and K/9 north of 12 while the Mariners are starting their ace, Luis Castillo, today.  Both these teams won yesterday as well with worse starting pitchers so we're looking for this to be a sweat-free bankroll builder.

Patrick Sandoval o4.5HA, 1u @ -155 DraftKings: Sandoval has been disappointing for the Angels this year and in his recent starts has been hurt by bad defense.  However, despite giving up multiple runs the Angels have given him the opportunity to work out of jams and shown they will not pull him early.  He's also allowed 5+ hits in 4 of his last 5 starts and the Rays will look to attack him early.

Clarke Schmidt o15.5O, 1u @ -125 DraftKings: Schmidt, outside from a rough start against the Braves and a bad April has been a pleasant surprise for a disappointing Yankee team.  Schmidt matches up well against the Blue Jays and their righty-dominant lineup, as his sinker and sweeper are tough for righties to make solid contact with.  Additionally, he's covered this line in 4 of his last 5 starts making us love the value of this play.

Cristopher Sanchez o3.5Ks, 1u @ -105 BetMGM:  This is a play our strikeout model loves as it is predicting Sanchez to have close to 5Ks today vs. the struggling Braves.  Sanchez has covered this line in his last 7 starts and we have little reason to believe that changes today.

Hunter Brown o4.5Ks, 1u @ -145 DraftKings: As mentioned in our tweet about this play, the line was at 6.5 on Fanduel so expect this line to move quickly and grab it while you can.  Brown has covered this line in his last 6 starts and we're looking for him to continue this trend today. 

ICYM:

Don't forget to check out our recent blog posts!

- "The Do Not Bet List" where we break down what teams we're going to strictly fade and what teams we will completely avoid with our reasoning behind each decision.  For now, this is only related to NFL + MLB teams but at some point, we'll expand to CFB and CBB!

- "Pursuit of Perfection: Two Traits that Lead to Mastery" where we break down what two characteristics separate the best athletes in the world from the great.  Ever wonder why Kobe, Jordan, GSP, and others were so good? They relied on two soft skills to separate themselves from the rest.