Super Bowl Betting Breakdown

Mood when the Super Bowl Parlay Hits

I released these plays yesterday as part of my Super Bowl Preview and Picks, but I've added two more straight bets and one touchdown parlay since then so decided to re-release with the new plays!

Super Bowl Prop Bets

Chiefs ML @ +105, 1u

• The Chiefs have the best QB in the world and have been pretty much perfect throughout the postseason.  This is their 4th Super Bowl in the past 5 years and we know they'll be prepared
• Niners have also come out slow in both of their playoff games, and the Chiefs won't give the game away like the Lions
• There should be a point in time when the Niners ML will have plus odds and I will be looking to hedge and secure some guaranteed profit

Isiah Pacheco ATTD @ -120, 1.2u

• Death, Taxes, Isiah Pacheco running angry for touchdowns
• Already has 3 touchdowns in 3 games this postseason
• Niners defense struggles a bit against the run
• Pacheco is also a decent-sized part of the pass production for the Chiefs in the red zone

Isiah Pacheco o66.5 Rush Yards @ -120, 1.2u

• As mentioned earlier, the Niners defense is vulnerable in the run game
• David Montgomery and Aaron Jones have torched this defense this postseason
• Pacheco covered this line in every postseason game thus far
• Could see Chiefs lean on Pacheco to dominate Time of Possession and keep the Niners potent offense off the field
• Also will keep the Niners pass rush honest

Travis Kelce o70.5 Rec Yards @ -115, 1.15u

• Kelce's come alive this postseason and has covered this line in all three games
• Still Mahomes go-to target when he's under pressure, something that should happen a lot against this Niners' pass rush
• Niners also just got torched by Sam Laporta for 97 yards

CMC o90.5 Rush Yards @ -115, 1.15u

• Like the Niners, the Chiefs' defense can struggle against the run
• CMC has rushed for 90+ yards in both playoff games
• Focal point of the Niners' offense is the ground game and establishing the run
• Led the league in Rushing EPA

Fred Warner o8.5 Tackles + Assists @ +115, 1u

• The Chiefs will look to attack the middle of the field with Pacheco runs and quick passes over the middle 
• Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton had 16 and 11 tackles respectively playing in a role that will be similar to what Fred Warner will play today

Brock Purdy o3.5 Rushing Attempts @ +128, 1u

• Purdy's not afraid to use his legs to extend plays or get some yards
• His running game was a big reason the Niners were able to secure the comeback against the Lions in the NFC Championship
• Covered this line in both playoff games

Mahomes o4.5 Rushing Attempts @ -112, 1.12u

• Mahomes is a magician and can use his legs to extend plays or run for short yardage
• 6% Sack Rate when pressured
• Niners aggressive front will hunt for sacks rather than try to contain Mahomes
• Has covered this in two of three playoff games
• 6 rushes against both the Bills and Ravens
• Only 2 rushes against the Dolphins but that game was over early

Super Bowl Parlay @ +473 

Leg 1: CMC ATTD

• Every Parlay should probably have this in it to give it a slight odds boost.
• Only has three games as a Niner without a touchdown, one of which he left early due to injury
• Scored multiple touchdowns in both postseason games

Leg 2: Kelce ATTD

• Kelce is back to being the dominant offensive force we've seen the past couple of years
• Scored a touchdown in each of the last two postseason games
• Mahomes go-to guy when he feels the pressure 

Leg 3: OVER 47.5

• These offenses are too good for the total to be this low
• Niners have the best offense in football, and the Chiefs have the best QB in football

Leg 4: Brock Purdy o246.5 Passing Yards

• The Niners have come out slow in both of their postseason games thus far
• Will have to throw the ball a lot to keep up with the Chiefs
• Purdy's covered this line in both postseason games already

Post Rivalry Week CFB Playoff Rankings

An electric Rivalry Week has passed and we are finally releasing our CFB Playoff rankings.  Nothing is set in stone yet as there are still the Championship games to look forward to, but in the meantime, we're ranking the 6 teams we think still have a shot at making the CFB, starting with two Honorable Mentions

Honorable Mentions:

Florida State University, 12-0:  Mannnn, what could've been.  The devastating injury to Jordan Travis kills this team's CFB Playoff chances in our eyes.  Even if they are able to beat a Louisville team that's been slept on all season, putting in FSU just to be massacred by the 1 seed isn't fair to the healthier teams listed below.  

In a less competitive year, it would be justifiable that an undefeated team should automatically get a spot. Still, this year has been far too competitive and it would be a disservice to claim FSU without Jordan Travis is one of the 4 best teams in the country and better than any of the teams listed below.

University of Texas, 11-1:  Texas has put up an extremely impressive 11-1 record despite losing Quinn Ewers for a couple of games.  The biggest win Texas has came in Week 3 when they walked into Tuscaloosa and bullied then-ranked #3 Alabama. However, Texas falls into an awkward spot.  As impressive as that Bama win was, Texas's next best win came against then #23 KSU at home.  Texas also lost the only other game they've played against a top 15 program, losing at home to Oklahoma in the latest Red River Rivalry game. 

The Big 12 Championship game is against Oklahoma State (AP ranked #20) and a win there doesn't move the needle enough to push Texas into the top four.  Next year, when Texas is facing SEC teams (that they showed this year they can more than handle) look for them to not only make the expanded playoffs but push for a top 4 seed and a first-round bye.

Outside looking in:

6. Alabama, 11-1:  Coach Saban and the Tide might find a way to weasel their way into the CFB Playoffs despite the early upset loss to Texas.  With the exception of the Iron Bowl -- a rivalry game in which Bama needed (and got!) a miracle -- Bama has been a totally different team since their Week 3 win against USF. Jalen Milroe has been one of the best players in the country these past couple of weeks and has been the driving factor in Bama's success.  

To get in (and finish above Texas in the last CFB rankings), Bama has to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship.  Capping the season off with a championship in the best division in CFB and victory over the AP + CFB #1 team would give the Tide a 4-1 record when facing top-15 teams this season, and it would be very hard to turn away from the CFB Playoffs.

5. Washington, 12-0:  Washington, like Bama, almost saw their playoff hopes evaporate Saturday when a weak roughing the passer call helped set up a game-winning field goal vs. Washington State.  Michael Penix Jr., Dillon Johnson, and Rome Odunze have been a nightmare trio for opposing defenses and Michael Penix will be in NYC for the Heisman ceremony as a result of their outstanding season.  Wash has a top 10 win vs Oregon (at home) as well as 3 more top 20 wins (at #20 USC, vs. #18 Utah, at #11 Oregon State) but have looked vulnerable in recent weeks.

The road to get in for Washington is simple: Win the Pac-12.  The Pac-12 championship is a rematch between Oregon and Washington, but this time is held at a neutral site.  It's fair to think the winner of that game will get in. The reason that Washington is at out #5 and has to "earn" their way into our top 4 is because Oregon has looked like the far better team down the stretch -- something Vegas agrees with as Washington is currently a 9.5-point dog in the Pac-12 Championship game.

The Current Picture:

4. Ohio State University, 11-1: OSU lost the most important game of the season on Saturday, falling to bitter rival University of Michigan 30-24 in one of the most highly anticipated editions of "The Game" ever.  OSU battled back and was in a position to win the game, getting the ball back down 6 with over a minute to go but alas a late interception sealed their fate. Despite the loss, OSU still has a very impressive resume, going 2-1 against top 10 teams (Wins at #9 Notre Dame and vs. #7 Penn State) as well as boast one of the most talented rosters in all of College.

To get in, OSU will need some help.  OSU would need an Iowa upset vs Michigan (very unlikely) or a Georgia win against Bama (more likely but by no means a guarantee).  The wildcard in this scenario is the Pac-12 Championship game. If Oregon barely beats Washington, Oregon will get in above OSU but there will be a very tough debate about who is more deserving of the fourth spot between an 11-1 OSU team and a 12-1 Washington team.  If Oregon takes care of business (wins by 10+), Georgia beats Bama, and Michigan Beats Iowa, OSU in our eyes would sneak in as the 4 seed for the second consecutive year.

3. University of Oregon, 11-1: Oregon looks like the team nobody wants to face right now.  Ever since losing to then-ranked #7 Washington by 3, Oregon has won 6 consecutive games by at least two scores, including a dominant 35-6 win at then #13 Utah and most recently a 31-7 win against #16 Oregon State during rivalry week.  Bo Nix has led an explosive Ducks' offense and has accounted for 43 touchdowns (37 passing, 6 rushing) with only two interceptions. 

To get in all Oregon has to do is beat Washington in their rematch. A win vs. Washington secures them a top 3 ranking at least and a loss would completely eliminate them from playoff contention. 

2. University of Michigan, 12-0: It's no secret that Mich's season came down to Saturday.  If Michigan lost to then universally ranked #2 OSU there was no path to the playoffs for the Wolverines.  Well, Michigan took care of business and has usurped OSU's spot as the second-best team in our rankings.  Michigan SOS is definitely in question, but they played two top 10 teams (at #10 Penn State and vs. #2 OSU) without their head coach (due to suspension) and won both games.

To get in Michigan just needs to handle its business in the Big 10 championship vs Iowa.  There's a world where Michigan can jump to the 1 seed if Bama is able to pull off the upset but it is more likely they will remain as the #2 team and face the winner of the Pac-12 in the first round of the CFB Playoffs

1. University of Georgia, 12-0:  We've previously said that this Georgia team isn't as good as their teams the past two years, but that is expected when you lose 5 first-round draft picks in the 2022 draft and another 3 first-round draft picks in the 2023 draft.  Even despite these losses and not being as good as the previous two seasons, Georgia is still clearly the best team in the country as they look to accomplish something that hasn't been done in almost a century: three-peat.

Georgia is in the CFB no matter what and probably can't fall further than the third spot.  Even if Bama were to beat Georgia in the SEC championship game, there is a discussion to be had as to who should be ranked higher between the two teams.  

CFB Betting Breakdown 11.4

Happy Saturday! CFB is in full swing with the first CFB Playoff rankings being released on Tuesday and we have plenty of plays we like today.  Our best bet is at the bottom of the article if you want to skip ahead, let's get into it.

Notre Dame -3 @ -115, DraftKings: Notre Dame heads to Death Valley to take on a Clemson team that is having a rough season. With fans questioning Dabo's leadership (and Dabo firing back), Notre Dame has a chance to put the nail in the coffin of Clemsons season. Notre Dame is coming off two convincing wins against USC and Pitt, while Clemson has struggled, losing their last two games after narrowly beating Wake Forest at home. We're looking for Heisman candidate Sam Hartman and the Fighting Irish to quiet the crowd early and cruise to a victory.

Colorado +13.5 @ -115 Fanduel: Oregon State is favored by 13.5 points which they have struggled to win by recently and they're coming off a tough loss against Arizona. Despite the terrible loss to Stanford, Colorado isn't as bad as a lot of people think they are and the offense is capable of keeping this game close. Coach Prime's unit has only lost by 14+ once in the past 5 games (against Oregon) despite playing USC and Chip Kelly's fast UCLA offense without Shilo Sanders for most of the game.

Purdue TT u7.5 @ +114 DraftKings: Michigan's defense has been on an impressive streak, allowing fewer than seven points per game in their last five. Playing at the Big House will make it difficult for Purdue's offense to thrive, with a noisy crowd of angry fans. Purdue's offense has also struggled to protect the ball and Michigan's defense has been capitalizing on turnover worthy plays in recent weeks.  

Texas -3.5 @ -114 Fanduel: Kansas State is quietly 6-2 and has been dominant their last two games. However, even without Quinn Ewers, Texas is a different beast. The Texas front is one of the best in the nation and can wreak havoc on any offensive gameplan.  Lastly, Texas and their fans are angry with their spot on the initial CFB Playoff rankings and are looking to make a statement with a big win at home.

Ole Miss -3 @ -112 Fanduel: Ole Miss has won four consecutive games since their loss to Alabama, while Texas A&M has lost two of their last three. A&M's struggles have come on the road, and Ole Miss and their fans need this win if they want to have a shot at the CFB playoffs.  

Nebraska -3 @ -115, DraftKings: Nebraska is on a hot streak, while Michigan State is trending downward, losing their last five games. It's been a forgettable year for Michigan State, as the biggest story regarding their football team was having to fire their head coach. Nebraska, under Matt Rhule, has found its identity and is on the upswing, winning three in a row. 

Bama ML @ -109 (Boosted) DraftKings: Alabama faces a must-win game, and the crowd will be a significant factor, with College Gameday in town. Bama has improved since their week 2 loss to Texas, and LSU's explosive offense led by Heisman candidate Jayden Daniels is a test for their defense. However, Brian Kelly's teams have historically struggled in primetime, and Saban's experience should give Alabama the edge.

Louisville -9.5 @ -115 Fanduel: Louisville is one of the least talked about ranked teams in the country. They're 7-1, just shut out Duke, and recently defeated Notre Dame. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, has struggled on the road, going 0-3 this season. Expect Louisville to continue their winning ways and as they cruise to a blowout victory.

Oklahoma State +6 @ -125 DraftKings: We've bought a half point here to bet on Oklahoma State but that might prove to be unnecessary. They've been on a hot streak, winning four in a row. In contrast, Oklahoma has shown cracks, with a recent loss to Kansas, who had to start their backup quarterback and a narrow victory at home against UCF the week prior. Oklahoma State's offense is averaging over 40 PPG in their last three games, and we're going to ride the hot team on this one to cover as a home dog

BEST BET: 

Michigan -32.5 @ -110 Draftkings

Michigan is arguably the best team in the country, and there's a sign-stealing controversy that has everyone talking. If Michigan does know Purdue's plays they legitimately might win by 50 points and even if the allegations aren't true, they still might win by 50.  Michigan is levels above Purdue talent wise and has the best depth on defense in the nation and the best offense Coach Harbaugh has ever had. 

Lastly, Purdue's football team is struggling, and their fans are eagerly awaiting the basketball season to start on Monday. 

CFB Betting Breakdown 10.14

 

We got burned badly by Coach Prime's team last night.  It's inexcusable to blow a 29-0 lead and its even more inexcusable to blow a 29-0 lead to a team that is far far worse talent-wise.  Due to this, we'll probably stay away from Colorado for the rest of the season except for some player props (@Travis Hunter TDs).  Luckily, we have a full slate of games today to have a nice bounce back.  

Today's Plays

Washington ML, 1.5u @ -104 DraftKings: We're using the Draftkings Game of the Day boost on the ML here.  Washington has been a very good football team all year and Joe Penix has an opportunity today to solidify himself as the third-best QB in this class and further his Heisman case.  Expect this Washington team to feed off of the crowd and hype that GameDay brings to get a massive W today.

Notre Dame ML, 1u @ +101 DraftKings: Like with our Washington play, we're utilizing a DraftKings boost to get this at better odds.  This Notre Dame team took OSU (a better team than USC) to the wire, and arguably only lost because their coach only sent 10 men out on the game-winning play.  Expect this defense to give Caleb Williams issues and ensure they have all 11 men on the field, as Sam Hardman and the offense do just enough to pull off the W as the fans storm the field in celebration.

Kansas -3, 1u @ -105 DraftKings: This Kansas team travels to Oklahoma State this weekend as a field goal favorite.  Kansas thrives on running the ball (averaging 232 YPG) and can dominate time of possession, negating the advantage of the home crowd and wearing down the defense.  These teams' defenses allow very similar YPG and we're expecting the Kansas rushing attack to be the difference in this one.

From ESPN's preview

OSU -17.5, 1u @ -114 Fanduel: This line feels like a trap and we are taking the bait.  OSU, despite not being as talented as they have in previous years, employs the best WR (by a wide margin) in the country and has plenty of talent in the trenches.  They take on a Purdue team that is 2-4 and whose defense will have no answers for Marvin Harrison Jr (even injured) and co.

Maryland -13.5, 1u @ -105 Fanduel: Maryland is an extremely underrated team this year due to the strength of the big 10, but they've quietly started the season 5-1 with the only loss being to OSU.  In all 5 of their wins, they've won by 18 or more points and that trend should continue at home vs a 2-4 Illinois team that should be run off the field.

Wisco/Iowa o34.5, 1.5u @ -110 Fanduel: This is another line that feels way too low.  Iowa's offense under Deacon Hill has been terrible but they have speed at the running back and receiver position that can make a big play and employ a dangerous special teams unit.  Wisconsin on the other hand, has averaged 31.4 PPG this season and could potentially cover this line by themselves.

Bama -19.5, 1u @ -110 Draftkings:  The Tide has had a very interesting start to the season.  They lost to Texas, benched Jalin Milroe, and then won an ugly game on the road before placing Milroe back in the starting lineup, something Nick Saban called a reset.  Saban's talked about Milroe gaining confidence every week and that appears to be the case as the Tide have won 3-0 averaging 30 points a game over that period.  However, the underrated piece of this streak is the Bama defense allowing 10 points to Ole Miss (on the road), 17 points to Miss State (in a blowout win), and 20 points to A&M (on the road) in an game many expected them to lose.  With the Tide back in Tuscaloosa expect them to come out fast both offensively and defensively in this SEC matchup against Arkansas.

Sports Betting Breakdown 9.20.23

We're back after a 3-2 day with a slate with a lot more props we like today.  The goal is to just keep stacking positive days and we're back at it again today.  The first game starts at 12:20 EST so we're ready to do nothing but watch these bets hit.

Aaron Nola o5.5HA, 1u @ -120 DraftKings: Nola has been disappointing for the Phillies this year and has been bad as of late.  In his past 3 starts against the Cardinals, Marlins, and Brewers, Nola couldn't get through five innings and allowed 7, 7, and 8 hits in each of those starts respectively.  Nola's assignment today is even tougher as he takes on a historically good lineup in the Atlanta Braves and we're looking for them to attack Nola early and cash this play quickly.

Josiah Gray o15.5O, 1u @ +110 DraftKings: Josiah Gray, one of the centerpieces of the Trea Turner and Max Scherzer trade, has had some growing pains in the MLB where he looks like a top-of-the-line starter in some starts and struggles in others.  We're counting on him to dominate the Chicago White Sox today, given they're a righty-heavy lineup that somehow has more issues in the clubhouse than their lack of talent on the field.  It is also in the National's best interest to let Gray try to work his way out of jams against a bad team.  The key for Gray to cover today is to avoid walks and attack the White Sox's below-average hitters.

Nationals ML, 1u @ -125 BetMGM:  The Nationals have quietly been a fun team this year and they have some intriguing pieces that can turn out to be valuable contributors in the future.  We talked about Josiah Gray above and we favor him in the pitching matchup today, as the Nationals are facing ex-top prospect Michael Kopech who has elite stuff but has suffered from control issues this season and was just relegated to the bullpen his past three appearances.  Kopech wasn't better from the bullpen and the Nationals are a team that can capitalize on the free passes that Kopech gives out. 

George Kirby o17.5O, 1u @ -120 BetMGM: Kirby has hit this line in his last 2 starts and 3 of his last 5.  Kirby has elite control and minimizes walks which helps keep his pitch count down.  Additionally, he's facing the Oakland AAs today and should dominate this lineup en route to covering this line and a Mariners W.

Kodai Senga u4.5HA, 1u @ +120 DraftKings: Senga has been pitching better and better as the season has progressed and dominated his last 5 starts.  Senga has also covered this line in 4 of his last 5 and we're looking for him to utilize his Ghost Fork to deal with the pesky Marlins hitters.  It also helps that Marlins star contact hitter, Luis Arraez, hurt his ankle steeping on a baseball yesterday and might not play today.

Mitch Keller o17.5O, 1u @ -120 DraftKings: Keller has been a workhorse for the Pirates this year and is averaging over 6 IP per start.  Keller has also covered this line in 4 of his last 5 starts, with the only start he didn't cover being a start against the Braves.  One of these starts includes an 8-inning masterclass against the Cubs, the team he's facing today. 

Dodgers + Mariners ML, 1u @ +103 DraftKings: We mentioned the Mariners starting one of the most reliable starters in the Majors, George Kirby, against the Athletics who would be happy if they won one game the rest of the season.  Meanwhile, the Dodgers are starting promising rookie Bobby Miller against the Tigers, who are starting struggling pitcher Reese Olson.  Both the Dodgers and Mariners should easily beat these teams given the difference in talent but also their starting pitching advantage.

Padres + Rays ML, 1u @ -102 DraftKings: The Padres are looking to finish the sweep of the last-place Rockies, as they start Seth Lugo vs. the Rockies Chase Anderson.  Anderson has pitched to a 6.43 ERA for the Rockies over 15 starts and despite their disappointing offensive season, the Padres should be able to put up runs early against him.  Meanwhile, the Rays are starting Aaron Civale, who has been incredibly tough to hit at the Trop as they face another Angel lefty in Reid Detmers.  The Rays are a team that kills lefty pitchers and they should chase Detmers early today.

ICYM

Don't forget to check out our recent blog posts!

- "The Do Not Bet List" where we break down what teams we're going to strictly fade and what teams we will completely avoid with our reasoning behind each decision.  For now, this is only related to NFL + MLB teams but at some point, we'll expand to CFB and CBB!

- "Pursuit of Perfection: Two Traits that Lead to Mastery" where we break down what two characteristics separate the best athletes in the world from the great.  Ever wonder why Kobe, Jordan, GSP, and others were so good? They relied on two soft skills to separate themselves from the rest.

- "Week 3 Power Rankings" posted to our Football-specific blog "The Touchdown Times"! We broke down all the NFL teams into tiers and justified each of our rankings as well as highlighted the week's biggest risers/fallers

Sports Betting Breakdown 9.19.23

We had a solid day in the MLB world yesterday!  The Brewers got shut out but we ended up 2-1 for +1.33u.  No NFL today (Tuesday problems) and unfortunately we have to wait till 6:40 for the first pitch today.  Let's get into the logic behind our picks that can be found every day on our Twitter!

Padres + Mariners ML, 1u @ +104 Fanduel:  This play is directly based on two tier-one teams on our "Do Not Bet List' (linked below!), as the Padres take on the Rockies in San Diego and the Mariners take on the Oakland AAA's in Oakland.  Adding to the value of this play is NL Cy Young favorite Blake Snell is pitching for the Padres and has been dominant in his last 20 starts, pitching to an ERA of 1.24 and K/9 north of 12 while the Mariners are starting their ace, Luis Castillo, today.  Both these teams won yesterday as well with worse starting pitchers so we're looking for this to be a sweat-free bankroll builder.

Patrick Sandoval o4.5HA, 1u @ -155 DraftKings: Sandoval has been disappointing for the Angels this year and in his recent starts has been hurt by bad defense.  However, despite giving up multiple runs the Angels have given him the opportunity to work out of jams and shown they will not pull him early.  He's also allowed 5+ hits in 4 of his last 5 starts and the Rays will look to attack him early.

Clarke Schmidt o15.5O, 1u @ -125 DraftKings: Schmidt, outside from a rough start against the Braves and a bad April has been a pleasant surprise for a disappointing Yankee team.  Schmidt matches up well against the Blue Jays and their righty-dominant lineup, as his sinker and sweeper are tough for righties to make solid contact with.  Additionally, he's covered this line in 4 of his last 5 starts making us love the value of this play.

Cristopher Sanchez o3.5Ks, 1u @ -105 BetMGM:  This is a play our strikeout model loves as it is predicting Sanchez to have close to 5Ks today vs. the struggling Braves.  Sanchez has covered this line in his last 7 starts and we have little reason to believe that changes today.

Hunter Brown o4.5Ks, 1u @ -145 DraftKings: As mentioned in our tweet about this play, the line was at 6.5 on Fanduel so expect this line to move quickly and grab it while you can.  Brown has covered this line in his last 6 starts and we're looking for him to continue this trend today. 

ICYM:

Don't forget to check out our recent blog posts!

- "The Do Not Bet List" where we break down what teams we're going to strictly fade and what teams we will completely avoid with our reasoning behind each decision.  For now, this is only related to NFL + MLB teams but at some point, we'll expand to CFB and CBB!

- "Pursuit of Perfection: Two Traits that Lead to Mastery" where we break down what two characteristics separate the best athletes in the world from the great.  Ever wonder why Kobe, Jordan, GSP, and others were so good? They relied on two soft skills to separate themselves from the rest.

Sports Betting Breakdown 9.18.23

We're back!  We had a great weekend in CFB and not as great in the NFL!  Let's get back to it today with three MLB plays and one NFL play for each game.

MLB Bets

Edward Cabrera u5.5Ks, 1u @ +102 Fanduel:  I know we just put the Mets on tier 2 of the do not bet list but this is about Cabrera and not them! Cabrera has legitimate control issues and the Marlins are very conscious of the amount of innings their young starters are throwing.  Edward Cabrera has already surpassed last year's innings total by 14 and counting hasn't gone over 5 innings in any of his last 5 starts.  Lastly, he has only hit the over in 1 of his last 4 starts so given the above we are tentatively making an exception to bet this today.

Jordan Montgomery o15.5O, 1u @ +131 Draftkings: Montgomery has hit this over in 4 of his last 5 starts and has navigated some tough lineups in the process.  Monty has also had plenty of experience pitching against the Red Sox given he came up in the Yankees system and he should know how to induce soft contact from the Red Sox hitters.  The Red Sox have also been reeling recently and just were swept by the Blue Jays over the weekend and now are flying from Canada to Texas to take on the Rangers, who are desperately trying to stay in the playoff picture.

Brewers + Padres ML, 1u @ +120 Draftkings:  The Brewers have Freddy Peralta pitching for them who has pitched well as of late.  They are taking on the disappointing Cardinals who are starting lifer Adam Wainwright who has been the worst starter in baseball this year.  The Brewers have also been playing good baseball this year and are deep in the playoff hunt and need to win games like this.  The Padres are starting Michael Wacha who has been solid for them despite coming off a bad start in his last outing.  They're taking on the Rockies at home and despite being a disappointment this year, they have played well as of late and should win this one easily.

NFL Bets

Saints -3, 1u @ -115 Draftkings:  The Saints visit Carolina to take on the Panthers on one of two MNF games this week.  Bluntly, the Saints are a much more talented team and should cover this easily.  Their defense is legit and should give first-overall pick Bryce Young plenty of issues like the Falcons were able to do last week.  The Panthers are also without their number 1 CB in Jaycee Horn so look for Olave and Derek Carr to get in a rhythm early.

Browns ML, 1u @ +115 Draftkings:  The only reason we're not taking the spread is because weird things seem to happen when the Browns travel to Pittsburgh.  However, this year the Browns are the more talented team at every position group (with the exception of safety) and should win this game handily.