An electric Rivalry Week has passed and we are finally releasing our CFB Playoff rankings. Nothing is set in stone yet as there are still the Championship games to look forward to, but in the meantime, we're ranking the 6 teams we think still have a shot at making the CFB, starting with two Honorable Mentions
Honorable Mentions:
Florida State University, 12-0: Mannnn, what could've been. The devastating injury to Jordan Travis kills this team's CFB Playoff chances in our eyes. Even if they are able to beat a Louisville team that's been slept on all season, putting in FSU just to be massacred by the 1 seed isn't fair to the healthier teams listed below.
In a less competitive year, it would be justifiable that an undefeated team should automatically get a spot. Still, this year has been far too competitive and it would be a disservice to claim FSU without Jordan Travis is one of the 4 best teams in the country and better than any of the teams listed below.
University of Texas, 11-1: Texas has put up an extremely impressive 11-1 record despite losing Quinn Ewers for a couple of games. The biggest win Texas has came in Week 3 when they walked into Tuscaloosa and bullied then-ranked #3 Alabama. However, Texas falls into an awkward spot. As impressive as that Bama win was, Texas's next best win came against then #23 KSU at home. Texas also lost the only other game they've played against a top 15 program, losing at home to Oklahoma in the latest Red River Rivalry game.
The Big 12 Championship game is against Oklahoma State (AP ranked #20) and a win there doesn't move the needle enough to push Texas into the top four. Next year, when Texas is facing SEC teams (that they showed this year they can more than handle) look for them to not only make the expanded playoffs but push for a top 4 seed and a first-round bye.
Outside looking in:
6. Alabama, 11-1: Coach Saban and the Tide might find a way to weasel their way into the CFB Playoffs despite the early upset loss to Texas. With the exception of the Iron Bowl -- a rivalry game in which Bama needed (and got!) a miracle -- Bama has been a totally different team since their Week 3 win against USF. Jalen Milroe has been one of the best players in the country these past couple of weeks and has been the driving factor in Bama's success.
To get in (and finish above Texas in the last CFB rankings), Bama has to beat Georgia in the SEC Championship. Capping the season off with a championship in the best division in CFB and victory over the AP + CFB #1 team would give the Tide a 4-1 record when facing top-15 teams this season, and it would be very hard to turn away from the CFB Playoffs.
5. Washington, 12-0: Washington, like Bama, almost saw their playoff hopes evaporate Saturday when a weak roughing the passer call helped set up a game-winning field goal vs. Washington State. Michael Penix Jr., Dillon Johnson, and Rome Odunze have been a nightmare trio for opposing defenses and Michael Penix will be in NYC for the Heisman ceremony as a result of their outstanding season. Wash has a top 10 win vs Oregon (at home) as well as 3 more top 20 wins (at #20 USC, vs. #18 Utah, at #11 Oregon State) but have looked vulnerable in recent weeks.
The road to get in for Washington is simple: Win the Pac-12. The Pac-12 championship is a rematch between Oregon and Washington, but this time is held at a neutral site. It's fair to think the winner of that game will get in. The reason that Washington is at out #5 and has to "earn" their way into our top 4 is because Oregon has looked like the far better team down the stretch -- something Vegas agrees with as Washington is currently a 9.5-point dog in the Pac-12 Championship game.
The Current Picture:
4. Ohio State University, 11-1: OSU lost the most important game of the season on Saturday, falling to bitter rival University of Michigan 30-24 in one of the most highly anticipated editions of "The Game" ever. OSU battled back and was in a position to win the game, getting the ball back down 6 with over a minute to go but alas a late interception sealed their fate. Despite the loss, OSU still has a very impressive resume, going 2-1 against top 10 teams (Wins at #9 Notre Dame and vs. #7 Penn State) as well as boast one of the most talented rosters in all of College.
To get in, OSU will need some help. OSU would need an Iowa upset vs Michigan (very unlikely) or a Georgia win against Bama (more likely but by no means a guarantee). The wildcard in this scenario is the Pac-12 Championship game. If Oregon barely beats Washington, Oregon will get in above OSU but there will be a very tough debate about who is more deserving of the fourth spot between an 11-1 OSU team and a 12-1 Washington team. If Oregon takes care of business (wins by 10+), Georgia beats Bama, and Michigan Beats Iowa, OSU in our eyes would sneak in as the 4 seed for the second consecutive year.
3. University of Oregon, 11-1: Oregon looks like the team nobody wants to face right now. Ever since losing to then-ranked #7 Washington by 3, Oregon has won 6 consecutive games by at least two scores, including a dominant 35-6 win at then #13 Utah and most recently a 31-7 win against #16 Oregon State during rivalry week. Bo Nix has led an explosive Ducks' offense and has accounted for 43 touchdowns (37 passing, 6 rushing) with only two interceptions.
To get in all Oregon has to do is beat Washington in their rematch. A win vs. Washington secures them a top 3 ranking at least and a loss would completely eliminate them from playoff contention.
2. University of Michigan, 12-0: It's no secret that Mich's season came down to Saturday. If Michigan lost to then universally ranked #2 OSU there was no path to the playoffs for the Wolverines. Well, Michigan took care of business and has usurped OSU's spot as the second-best team in our rankings. Michigan SOS is definitely in question, but they played two top 10 teams (at #10 Penn State and vs. #2 OSU) without their head coach (due to suspension) and won both games.
To get in Michigan just needs to handle its business in the Big 10 championship vs Iowa. There's a world where Michigan can jump to the 1 seed if Bama is able to pull off the upset but it is more likely they will remain as the #2 team and face the winner of the Pac-12 in the first round of the CFB Playoffs
1. University of Georgia, 12-0: We've previously said that this Georgia team isn't as good as their teams the past two years, but that is expected when you lose 5 first-round draft picks in the 2022 draft and another 3 first-round draft picks in the 2023 draft. Even despite these losses and not being as good as the previous two seasons, Georgia is still clearly the best team in the country as they look to accomplish something that hasn't been done in almost a century: three-peat.
Georgia is in the CFB no matter what and probably can't fall further than the third spot. Even if Bama were to beat Georgia in the SEC championship game, there is a discussion to be had as to who should be ranked higher between the two teams.
