CFB Betting Breakdown 10.14

 

We got burned badly by Coach Prime's team last night.  It's inexcusable to blow a 29-0 lead and its even more inexcusable to blow a 29-0 lead to a team that is far far worse talent-wise.  Due to this, we'll probably stay away from Colorado for the rest of the season except for some player props (@Travis Hunter TDs).  Luckily, we have a full slate of games today to have a nice bounce back.  

Today's Plays

Washington ML, 1.5u @ -104 DraftKings: We're using the Draftkings Game of the Day boost on the ML here.  Washington has been a very good football team all year and Joe Penix has an opportunity today to solidify himself as the third-best QB in this class and further his Heisman case.  Expect this Washington team to feed off of the crowd and hype that GameDay brings to get a massive W today.

Notre Dame ML, 1u @ +101 DraftKings: Like with our Washington play, we're utilizing a DraftKings boost to get this at better odds.  This Notre Dame team took OSU (a better team than USC) to the wire, and arguably only lost because their coach only sent 10 men out on the game-winning play.  Expect this defense to give Caleb Williams issues and ensure they have all 11 men on the field, as Sam Hardman and the offense do just enough to pull off the W as the fans storm the field in celebration.

Kansas -3, 1u @ -105 DraftKings: This Kansas team travels to Oklahoma State this weekend as a field goal favorite.  Kansas thrives on running the ball (averaging 232 YPG) and can dominate time of possession, negating the advantage of the home crowd and wearing down the defense.  These teams' defenses allow very similar YPG and we're expecting the Kansas rushing attack to be the difference in this one.

From ESPN's preview

OSU -17.5, 1u @ -114 Fanduel: This line feels like a trap and we are taking the bait.  OSU, despite not being as talented as they have in previous years, employs the best WR (by a wide margin) in the country and has plenty of talent in the trenches.  They take on a Purdue team that is 2-4 and whose defense will have no answers for Marvin Harrison Jr (even injured) and co.

Maryland -13.5, 1u @ -105 Fanduel: Maryland is an extremely underrated team this year due to the strength of the big 10, but they've quietly started the season 5-1 with the only loss being to OSU.  In all 5 of their wins, they've won by 18 or more points and that trend should continue at home vs a 2-4 Illinois team that should be run off the field.

Wisco/Iowa o34.5, 1.5u @ -110 Fanduel: This is another line that feels way too low.  Iowa's offense under Deacon Hill has been terrible but they have speed at the running back and receiver position that can make a big play and employ a dangerous special teams unit.  Wisconsin on the other hand, has averaged 31.4 PPG this season and could potentially cover this line by themselves.

Bama -19.5, 1u @ -110 Draftkings:  The Tide has had a very interesting start to the season.  They lost to Texas, benched Jalin Milroe, and then won an ugly game on the road before placing Milroe back in the starting lineup, something Nick Saban called a reset.  Saban's talked about Milroe gaining confidence every week and that appears to be the case as the Tide have won 3-0 averaging 30 points a game over that period.  However, the underrated piece of this streak is the Bama defense allowing 10 points to Ole Miss (on the road), 17 points to Miss State (in a blowout win), and 20 points to A&M (on the road) in an game many expected them to lose.  With the Tide back in Tuscaloosa expect them to come out fast both offensively and defensively in this SEC matchup against Arkansas.